Franklin's potential Canadian impact uncertain as it heads north

The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) is keeping a close eye on Franklin's progression, with the potential for it to track north of Canada's East Coast, possibly impacting the Atlantic provinces in the days to come.

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It has also the chance to become a hurricane in the coming days as it re-enters the Atlantic basin and interacts with warm sea surface temperatures.


"It is still too early to have confidence in the storm track for Franklin into next week," says Dr. Doug Gillham, a meteorologist at The Weather Network. "It is possible that Franklin will escape out to sea without a significant impact to land, however, the overall pattern is somewhat concerning, with a risk that Franklin could leave its mark on Atlantic Canada and possibly the northeast U.S."

The slow movement of Franklin is thanks to the record-setting heat dome over the southeastern U.S., bringing in northerly winds, which are preventing Franklin from accelerating. As the heat dome weakens early next week, the ridge in the Atlantic Ocean starts to develop, and creates southerly winds allowing Franklin to move to the north at a faster speed.

As Franklin churns, a trough over Eastern Canada will be the main driver for where Franklin tracks. The timing and speed of the trough will dictate whether Franklin impacts the East Coast or not.

Baron - atmospheric heights - Aug23
Baron - atmospheric heights - Aug23

Currently, confidence is low on which solution is more likely, but as we draw near to the event, we'll have a better understanding. Be sure to continue to check back for updates.

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These latest tropical developments come less than two weeks after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center raised its prediction for the 2023 season from a near-normal level of activity to above normal.