Disturbance near Florida could form as Hurricane Nigel starts weakening in busy Atlantic

Hurricane Nigel maxed out on strength. One tropical wave should turn into something more. Another tropical wave could disturb parts of Florida — and much of the U.S. East Coast.

Here are the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center on the three weather systems:

Where’s Hurricane Nigel going and how are its winds blowing?

Category 1 Hurricane Nigel, with maximum sustained winds at 90 mph, is moving north-northeast at 18 mph as of the 5 p.m. Wednesday advisory.

Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles and tropical storm winds extend 160 miles from the center of the storm, which is 755 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

No watches or warnings are in effect, but “swells generated by Nigel will affect Bermuda during the next couple of days,” the NHC said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

In an earlier advisory on Wednesday, the NHC said “Nigel has likely reached its peak intensity, with gradual weakening expected later, followed by faster rate of weakening on Friday,” the hurricane center said.

The hurricane is also forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane Nigel’s projected path as of 11 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023.
Hurricane Nigel’s projected path as of 11 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023.

What’s happening with that disturbance off Florida?

A low pressure area just off Florida could form within the next day or two and could “acquire some subtropical characteristics” by Friday as it moves north, according to the NHC.

“Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States late this week and into this weekend,” the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. advisory.

As the system moves north, it could drape drier air over South Florida by the weekend, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

Formation chance through 48 hours: 10%

Formation chance through seven days: 40%

What’s up with the disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic?

There’s a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa — and its likely to merge with another disturbance a few hundred miles west, according to the NHC.

“A tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the hurricane center said.

Formation chance through 48 hours: 10%

Formation chance through seven days: 70%