Next season is mission critical if Leafs want to keep Matthews
With the Maple Leafs likely to run it back with their core-four next season, there will be immense pressure on the team to succeed in the playoffs, just before Kyle Dubas' contract expires and Auston Matthews can start negotiating a new deal.
Video Transcript
JUSTIN CURHBERT: I got my way to the cap sheet, and I'm thinking about what has to happen this summer next year based on the cap sheet. And I'm looking at Auston Matthews, number one, on that cap sheet, 11 point whatever million it is with only two years remaining after this one. He's eligible to start negotiating a new deal next July.
So let's say they run it back. Let's say nothing changes. Let's say they get to seven seasons of losing in the first round and what that might mean. Now, not listed on that cap sheet is Kyle Dubas, who has just this year remaining. And of course, he's not going to sign an extension this summer. How could that possibly be? How can you reward him despite the job he did with a contract extension this year?
So next year if they don't win, everything stays the same, they do run it back, you're going to be transitioning out of one regime to the next with the most important negotiation in franchise history about to get underway. I just don't-- you can't underestimate how important next year is.
We knew that John Tavares' last few years could be a little rough. And the fact that Auston Matthews' contract comes up before everybody else and they can start talking about it next year after what could be seven years of postseason disappointment, I mean, we could be trending towards something cataclysmic if we haven't reset all that already.
Next year is unbelievably important. Incredibly, it's more important than what we just saw, and yet they're going to have to make these decisions pretty quickly because once you meet the media after you're kicked out of the playoffs, things are kind of set in stone. So probably no surprise that they took a couple of days here to reset before they had those end-of-season exit meetings.
Tomorrow's a big day. I mean, this podcast comes out on Tuesday, so we'll know at that point what the messaging was. But man, big decisions maybe not even made yet but they're going to have to show something Tuesday morning. It's going to be very, very interesting.
JULIAN MCKENZIE: Avry, can I run an idea by you real quick because Curthbert brings up a really interesting point here. July 1st, 2023 is the first day when Matthews can start negotiating that extension with the Leafs if he so chooses. And like, I don't even want to get to a point where Matthew says, you know what, I want to test free agency and see if any of the big name markets are interested in my services.
Could you imagine if you're SportsNet like a week or two before July 1st, 2023, and you know everyone is interested in this whole Auston Matthews thing? What if you just did, like, a countdown clock on, like, all of your programming, counting down the minutes and hours until it is time for Auston Matthews to be able to negotiate this extension? I know we like talking shop with media stuff. Do you think that's a good idea?
AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: Why not? It would draw viewers in. It would draw eyeballs. There will be actual real viewers wanting to know where is he going to go? Is he going to stay in Toronto? Is he going to go to New York or Los Angeles? I say, go big or go home. Make it a big spectacle. What's the harm?
OMAR: What's the harm. The harm is to Omar.
[LAUGHTER]
That's where the harm is. Because like, are you kidding? You do-- bro--
JUSTIN CURHBERT: I don't think went where he thought it was going to go.
OMAR: That would take years-- that would take years off of my lifespan. The long-term stress of just seeing a-- I get stressed out when they do a graphic of, like, when the last time like, Tavares had, like, a five-on-five shot or whatever. A countdown of when Matthews can hit free agency? No. I am begging.
JULIAN MCKENZIE: I'm peak facetious, sort of.
OMAR: Oh, I know, but I am begging.
AVRY LEWIS-MCDOUGALL: I'd be curious. Do it.
JUSTIN CURHBERT: I'm not either though, like, I don't want to cause an aneurysm here. But why wouldn't Auston Matthews exercise complete caution if next summer the Maple Leafs are bringing in a new Brendan Shanahan, a new Kyle Dubas, maybe a new Sheldon Keefe? Why wouldn't he want to see the lay of the land when he's less than a year away or a year away from unrestricted free agency where he could call his own shot?
JULIAN MCKENZIE: And get paid.
JUSTIN CURHBERT: Next year is so, so big for the Maple Leafs. This summer is so, so big for management. I don't even think we've scratched the surface on how deep this discussion can go.
OMAR: Like, isn't Matthews at a point when it comes to organization where you literally just, like, hand him a blank check and say like, what do you want?
JUSTIN CURHBERT: But that might not be enough. I think he is, honestly. I think he could write it, but like if Tavares can't move through neutral ice anymore in the seventh year of his deal--
OMAR: Right.
JUSTIN CURHBERT: --and everybody else is already locked up and he doesn't believe in the people coming in or doesn't believe in the team anymore, I don't know. I'm not saying he's going to go. I actually think he loves being the biggest name in hockey in the biggest market. I think he does relish, that but, like, man, they got to win or the belief is just going to dissipate, and people are not going to be so convinced that this is the best place to be.
Because honestly, everything else that this organization does other than win is gold standard, like everything. No one's stepping out of line. No one's making huge missteps. Everything that they do is perfect aside from their performance in the playoffs. It's crazy, but this is the reality.
