Those lines shifted in favor of the Spartans. As of Friday afternoon, San José State is a -.2.5-point favorite in advance of Saturday’s college football game.
Kickoff is set for 7:35 p.m. in San José.
So why are the 8-1 Bulldogs underdogs against a 4-5 Spartans team?
“More likely though, this was a case where professional bettors or a betting group, sometimes called “sharp bettors,” felt there was value in betting San Jose State as a 1-point underdog and wagered enough money on the Spartans to move the line 2.5 points and making Fresno State the 1.5-point underdog,” Covers sports betting analyst Andrew Caley said.
“And 2.5-points is not a huge move and is not uncommon in a given weekend of college football betting. The same thing also happened in the Virginia Tech-Boston College game this week.”
Boston College (6-3) opened as a -2.5-point favorite, but the 4-5 Hokies are now a -1.5 favorite.
In terms of Fresno State, Caley believes the strength of schedule is a big part of why oddsmakers are favoring San José State.
He said Fresno State built up an impressive record but against lesser opponents.
“The Bulldogs played a bad Purdue team, a bad Arizona State team and a Kent State team in the running for worst team in the country, in non-conference games,” he said.
“While San Jose State faced USC, Oregon State, and Toledo.
“And things even out even more in conference play. Fresno State (4-1) is just a game ahead of San Jose State (3-2) in the Mountain West standings. Once again, the Spartans have taken on the conference’s top team in Air Force. While the Bulldogs have played UNLV and Wyoming, and lost to the Cowboys.”
He noted that San José State is 41st and Fresno State 52nd in yards per play on offense when facing FBS opponents.
“While the Bulldogs have an edge when it comes to yards per play allowed, but once again, the more difficult schedule for the Spartans can account for some of that, he said.
The most important thing, Caley said, is that San Jose State has been a much better bet this season going 7-2 against the spread, compared to 4-5 ATS for Fresno State.
It could be a tough time for Fresno State who hope to crack the AP Top 25 poll with a win.