Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – Yuh-Jung Youn Is the New Frontrunner, Amanda Seyfried Is the New Spoiler

Clayton Davis
·8 min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

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2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

UPDATED: Apr. 8, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: For best supporting actress, Youn might have moved ahead as the frontrunner of that category. With “Minari” landing six nominations, she can serve as a winner to represent the film, and more importantly, she’ll be just the second female Asian acting winner in history following Miyoshi Umeki in “Sayonara” (1957). It’s not all sewn up for the critics’ darling, yet as Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) is still a factor to consider. Picking up a win from Critics Choice, the two will face-off one last time at BAFTA, where none of their other supporting actress rivals are nominated. It’s safe to say, whoever wins at BAFTA, most likely wins at the Oscars..

Bakalova’s film also has another nomination for adapted screenplay, which helps her greatly. Youn becomes the first Asian woman to be nominated in this category since Rinko Kikuchi (“Babel”) from 2006. Still, she’ll need a SAG win and/or overcome Bakalova at BAFTA, who she’s nominated alongside. Close joins the ranks of Geraldine Page as an eight-time nominee who coincidentally won on her final outing for “The Trip to Bountiful” (1985). If she loses, she joins Peter O’Toole, who went zero for eight in his career. Her name and performance were able to overcome the film reviews, but will the Academy at large make the time for “Hillbilly Elegy?” In Amanda Seyfried’s case, early on, she looked like a safe bet to be a representation for “Mank” in a major way at the Oscars, but without SAG and BAFTA, she’s in a difficult spot. Some will point out Regina King winning for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018), but where she was nominated, she won. Seyfried hasn’t won a prize yet, and you have to go back to Marcia Gay Harden in “Pollock” (2001) to find a winner with nothing preceding the Oscars, however in this crazy pandemic year, anything is possible.

SNUBS: Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”), Olivia Cooke (“Sound of Metal”), Dominique Fishback (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), Charin Alvarez (“Saint Frances”), Jayme Lawson (“Farewell Amor”), Swankie (“Nomadland”), Jodie Foster (“The Mauritanian”), Ariana DeBose (“The Prom”), Tiffany Boone (“The Midnight Sky”), Renee Elise Goldsberry (“Hamilton”)

PRECURSORS LEADER:
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Yuh-Jung Youn
    "Minari" (A24)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "It’s a bbuk all you bastards!" - Yuh-Jung Youn (Soonja playing cards with David)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Soonja

    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

  2. Amanda Seyfried
    "Mank" (Netflix)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "I'm being burned at the stake and I am dying for a ciggie-boo..Ha! There - God's punishing you. Watch those stairs, they're treacherous." - Amanda Seyfried (Marion talking to Mank on top of the FUNERAL PYRE)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Marion Davies

    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton

  3. Maria Bakalova
    "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "This manual is full of lies! I found a new book which only tells the truth. It’s called Facebook. I learn so many facts there. Like our nation’s proudest moment - the Holocaust - never happen." - Maria Bakalova (Tutar to Borat outside the HOTEL)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Tutar Sagdiyev

    DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner
    SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter.
    STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova

  4. Olivia Colman
    "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "I'm very sorry about this." - Olivia Colman (Anne talking to Laura following Anthony's outburst)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2018's "The Favourite" in best actress)
    ROLE: Anne

    DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
    SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
    STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams

  5. Glenn Close
    "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "I don’t care you hate me. I ain’t in it for popularity. You gotta take care of business, go to school, get good grades to even have a chance." - Glenn Close (Mamaw talking to J.D. in the car)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 7 nominations (most recently for 2018's "The Wife" in best actress)
    ROLE: Mamaw

    DIRECTOR: Ron Howard
    SYNOPSIS: An urgent phone call pulls a Yale Law student back to his Ohio hometown, where he reflects on three generations of family history and his own future.
    STARRING: Amy Adams, Glenn Close, Gabriel Basso, Haley Bennett, Freida Pinto, Bo Hopkins, Owen Asztalos

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Only two women have won this category, Dianne Wiest and Shelly Winters. Thelma Ritter has the most nominations at six, while Amy Adams is second with five. The oldest winner ever is Peggy Ashcroft (“A Passage to India”) at 77, while the oldest nominee is Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) at 87. Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon”) is both the youngest nominee and winner in history at 10.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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