Will it snow in December? Met Office forecast revealed
With three named storms and several National Severe Weather Warnings affecting the UK in the past few weeks, you might have been keeping a close eye on the weather forecast.
And given that most of the country experienced snowfall for the first time this year, many of us will be wondering how likely it is to snow before Christmas.
Here's everything we know so far...
How likely is it to snow before Christmas?
According to the Met Office's long forecast, most of us will experience unsettled conditions. There will be some sleet and snow likely at times, especially on high ground in the north.
"Forecasting snow in the UK isn't like some other places along the UK's latitude, where snow can be quite reliably forecast days or weeks in advance," Andrea Bishop, a spokesperson from the Met Office tells Country Living.
"Because of the UK's location, where the air comes from is incredibly important when it comes to determining if snow is possible. Being surrounded by water also adds another factor to predicting snow chances in the UK.
"It may not feel like it if you dip your toe in, but the water in the seas around the UK is well above freezing and that affects the temperature of the air close to the surface which can determine how much snow is in the forecast.”
How likely is a white Christmas in the UK?
The Met Office previously used a single location in the country to predict a white Christmas, which was the Met Office building in London. However, with the increase in betting on the popular tradition, the team has since increased the number of locations to include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Edinburgh Castle, Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
Also, while we typically associate December and Christmas Day with snow, “for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow,” adds Andrea.
“It’s actually more likely in January and February, with snow actually settling on the ground an average of 2.99 days in December, compared to 3.31 days in January, 3.35 days in February and 1.94 days in March.”
A white Christmas was actually more common in the 18th and 19th centuries. Even more so before the change of calendar in 1752, which effectively brought Christmas Day back by 12 days. However, climate change and higher average temperatures have generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas here in the UK.
Most of the time "there is often a fine line between who sees snow and who sees rain," Andrea adds. "Sometimes just a fraction of a degree Celsius change in temperature can make the difference between rain or snow falling, making forecasting snow weeks in advance extremely difficult."
When was the last white Christmas?
Even though some of us might remember seeing some flurries of snow last Christmas, in 2023, “with 11% of stations recording sleet or snow falling,” Andrea recalls, sadly “none reported any snow lying on the ground.”
There were similar stats in 2022, with “9% of weather stations recording falling sleet or snow, but none with any snow settling,” while in both 2021 and 2020 “6% of weather stations recorded sleet or snow falling, but in these years, less than 1% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground in 2021 and only 4% in 2020.”
“The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations."
What is the snowiest city in the UK?
If you're hoping to experience snow in the run-up to Christmas this year, you might want to head to Scotland, as two destinations north of the border have the highest average number of days of snowfall across the whole of the UK.
Taking the top spot with an average of 76 days of snow per year – based on the 1981-2010 averages – is Cairngorm National Park in the Grampian Mountains. While another popular snowsports destination, Aviemore, comes in at 66 days a year.
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