Florida’s west coast under tropical storm watch as Ian nears. Storm warning for Lower Keys
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida and a storm warning for the Lower Keys as Ian swiftly powered up Sunday night — remaining on track for a potential landfall later this week with hurricane-strength winds and damaging storm surge.
The area’s storm watch is from Englewood southward to Chokoloskee; the Keys’ warning spans from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday in its 11 p.m. advisory.
A storm surge watch also was issued for the Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, and for the Florida’s west coast from Englewood to the bridge, including Florida Bay.
South Florida remained out of the cone of concern Sunday night. More watches and warnings are likely for a swath of the Gulf Coast early this week.
Ian’s maximum sustained winds increased 20 mph in a six-hour span on Sunday, and by Monday morning it could become a hurricane, according to the hurricane center. The system is forecast to get closer to west Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane before leaving the Caribbean country as a major hurricane on Tuesday morning.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and a storm warning is in effect for the provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas.
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At 11 p.m. Sunday, the latest track from the hurricane center continued a trend that will keep the worst of Ian from reaching South Florida. But Jamie Rhone, acting director of the hurricane center, warned residents southeast not to tune out the storm just yet in a Sunday morning broadcast.
“You can’t be too fixated on this cone and it moving around a little bit,” he said. “The track has now shifted just enough that you’re out of the damaging wind potential, but I still need you to prepare for heavy rains and some of the gusty squalls.”
The hurricane center predicts the system could begin to weaken before it makes landfall, possibly as a Category 1 along the Big Bend on Thursday night, but heavy rain and winds could be felt throughout The Sunshine State this week.
All of Florida remained under a state of emergency and President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency in Florida Saturday night. Officials in the Florida Keys met Sunday and once again bumped the decision to call for evacuations to Monday.
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Ian is strengthening
Since 5 p.m. Sunday, Ian’s maximum sustained winds rapidly increased from 45 mph to 65 mph, according to the 11 p.m. alert. The system is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph.
The system was about 140 miles south of Grand Cayman and about 390 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Its tropical-storm winds extend up to 70 miles from the center.
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Track closer to Tampa Bay
The latest forecast calls for Ian to turn north-northwest on Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. From there, Ian’s center is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday.
Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds.
Its track forecast has been shifted to the east — closer to Tampa Bay — mainly due to a blend of the latest prediction models, according to the hurricane center. By Wednesday morning, Ian is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds before turning back into a Category 2 hurricane with 120 mph winds in the proximity of Tampa’s coast.
On Thursday night, Ian is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds as it nears the Big Bend.
“It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame,” the hurricane center said at 11 p.m. “Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.”
Impacts in Florida
Many parts of Florida will feel the impacts of Ian, according to the hurricane center.
Ian is expected to produce two to six inches of rain from the Keys into southern and central Florida Monday through Wednesday evening. Heavy rainfall may affect the northern portion of the state, the Panhandle and portions of the southeast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
“Considerable” flooding is possible later this week in west-central Florida, and flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Keys and the peninsula through mid week.
“Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the Southeast later this week cannot be ruled out,” the hurricane center said.
The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach four to seven feet from Englewood to Bonita Beach, three to five feet from Bonita to East Cape Sable, and two to four from there to the Keys, including Card Sound Bridge, Florida Bay and Dry Tortugas.
On Monday afternoon, top officials with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will hold a press briefing at the hurricane center in Miami to discuss the latest forecast and expected impacts from Ian.
