Experts Say Groundhogs Are Actually TERRIBLE at Predicting Weather
There is perhaps no animal more in tune with the change of the seasons than the groundhog. One of 15 marmot species, the largest members of the squirrel family, groundhogs are found all the way from the middle of the U.S. to the East Coast and up into Alaska and Canada, showcasing their impressive adaptability to a wide range of climates. Moreover, groundhogs are among the class of true hibernators, says wildlife expert Peter Gros, cohost of Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom Protecting the Wild on NBC.
After fattening up all summer long and early fall, eating as much as they possibly can, Peter says, “They curl up into a lifeless ball. Their body temperature drops from 99 degrees to 37 degrees (Fahrenheit). Their heart rate drops from 80 a minute beats to 5. Respiration drops from 16 breaths a minute down to only 2.”
But what’s really interesting about this is that during the roughly 150 days groundhogs hibernate, they lose only about a quarter of their body weight, Peter says. “So, they are amazingly well adapted to make it through long, cold winter seasons.”
Around this time of year, halfway between the winter solstice and spring equinox, groundhogs do indeed begin to stir as they sense the change in temperature. In fact, Groundhog Day on February 2 is the midpoint between winter and spring (technically, the midpoint falls on February 3 this year, but let’s not overcomplicate a good tradition, shall we?).
Does this mean there’s something to Groundhog Day, the day on which Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous of the country’s weather-prognosticating animals, emerges from his Gobbler’s Knob burrow to declare an early spring (if he doesn’t see his shadow) or six more weeks of winter (if he does see his shadow), as he has since the 1880s?
According to experts, no. Groundhogs have no special weather-predicting abilities whatsoever.
“We think that many animals that hibernate have sort of an internal clock triggered by changes of length of daylight and climatic conditions,” Peter says. But, “I don’t think there’s any real scientific data that if he or she sees a shadow, that they go back down the hole for another six weeks, and if they don’t see their shadow, they say, ‘Okay, kids, it’s time to grab the sunscreen, we’re headed out.’ ”
When you do the math, Punxsutawney Phil’s record for predicting spring’s arrival since 1887 comes in at about 39-40% accuracy (there are about 10 years early on when records are missing).
According to Jill Szwed, a meteorologist at WTAE-TV, Pittsburgh’s Action News 4, which is based not too far from Punxsutawney where the big annual Groundhog Day celebration takes place, “One hundred seven times Phil has seen his shadow, meaning six more weeks of winter. Twenty-one times he predicted an early spring, and he did that last year—and he was right on the money with that forecast. Everybody was so warm across the country last year, so Phil was definitely onto something in 2024,”
Despite Phil’s success last year, Jill recommends you rely on your daily local weather report, powered by modern technology and improved forecasting, over Phil’s prediction, but she also is not too hard on beloved rodent.
“It’s difficult sometimes for even a meteorologist to predict the weather 24 hours in advance or a week ahead, but he’s trying to predict the early arrival of spring all across the country,” Jill says. “As a meteorologist, I pride myself on being a little better than about 40%, but there are those days. Sometimes the weather just sneaks up on us and Mother Nature throws us a monkey wrench.”
Though day-to-day forecasts are favored today, when meteorologists do try to look at the broad picture of what a season like winter has in store for a particular region, nowadays they get a little more scientific than looking for their shadows.
Instead, Jill says, “We look at something called either El Nino or La Nina, which is a big global climate pattern. It’s related to ocean temperatures in the equatorial region just off the coast of South America in the Pacific Ocean. The colder water temperatures would then indicate that La Nina is happening, and that’s what we’re experiencing this winter. And so that means certain things for different parts of the country. For me, being in the Pittsburgh area, the lower Great Lakes, that typically means that our winter is a little bit milder and wetter. Meanwhile, the Southern U.S. is also expecting warmer than average temperatures, but the storm track stays away, so conditions are generally drier.”
While neither expert Country Living consulted for this story puts stock in Punxsutawney Phil’s weather predictions, both are fans of Groundhog Day. Dating back more than 130 years in the U.S., the holiday evolved from European folklore and Candlemas celebrations. Pennsylvania Dutch immigrants (who also brought the Easter Bunny across the Atlantic!) adapted their old-world tradition to an animal readily found in their new land, one with an impeccable internal clock: the groundhog.
Jill, who was born and raised in the Pittsburgh area, grew up watching WTAE’s live feed from Gobber’s Knob in Punxsutawney on Groundhog Day. “He’s kind of like a local mascot, even though Punxsutawney’s about an hour and a half, two hours away from Pittsburgh, we still claim him as our own.”
For early settlers, looking forward to the possibility of the groundhog predicting an early spring probably eased winter doldrums, helping them through the coldest, darkest part of the year, Jill says. “Especially here in western Pennsylvania, our winters can be harsh some years with cold outbreaks, lots of snow as well. Before modern technology, folklore was taken to heart a little bit more, very much like the Farmers Almanac outlooks that were released for every season. That was something that people did listen to and took to heart when planning ahead for the upcoming weeks or the season.” Today, however, “this is just kind of a fun tradition that western Pennsylvanians and the nation look forward to on February 2nd.”
As a wildlife expert and educator, Peter is fond of Groundhog Day for another reason: “It’s a great time to bring attention to an animal that does an awful lot of good,” he says. For instance, the elaborate tunnels they build (one groundhog can tunnel up to 60 feet, even creating special rooms for sleeping, waste, and food storage) are not detrimental as some believe, he says. Instead they aerate and fertilize the soil, and create habitat for other ground-dwellers too.
They also keep grasses and plants trimmed, which is fine in nature, but you may not want them in your garden eating your fruits, veggies—and even your ornamental beauties. “As sort of the last resort, they’ll eat flowering plants,” he says, but not to worry. “They’re very sensitive to things that smell a lot, so if you plant some garlic or plants that emit an odor, that will tend to keep them away.”
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