Kansas said no to GOP abortion extremism. Does that foreshadow political realignment?
Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejected GOP extremists’ attempt to rob women of their reproductive rights in August. Could that be a foreshadowing of political winds that will sweep Republicans away nationwide?
In 1860, with the nation deeply divided over slavery, Abraham Lincoln and the then-nascent Republican Party ended the conservative Whig Party forever. It marked the third of five electoral realignments in our nation’s history.
For those who have never taken a political science class, electoral realignment is a periodic episode in which a new or reformed party asserts dominance over the current party in power. The first realignment occurred in the early 1800s, when Thomas Jefferson’s Democratic-Republican Party ousted John Adams’ incumbent Federalist Party from power, never to be heard from again. The most recent realignment (other than a back-and-forth in the 1960s) was Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal Democrats pushing the Republican Party aside for years. The sixth major electoral realignment could happen in the upcoming midterms. And, if so, the Free State would once again be front and center.
Realignment seemed unimaginable a few months ago. Republicans had momentum and history on their side. President Joe Biden’s polling numbers were in the tank; gas prices were soaring; inflation was high and the stock market and economy were flagging. Pundits predicted Republicans would retake the House and Senate. Then came a sudden shift in the political winds.
First, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, followed by Kansans last month overwhelmingly rejecting Amendment 2, designed by Republican state legislators to eliminate abortion access. The news shocked and galvanized the nation. Voter registration for independents and Democrats boomed, while the number of registered Republicans only narrowly increased.
Second, Biden started getting things done. His ratings rose. Gas prices began decreasing and there are hopeful harbingers — such as Walmart’s grocery market share growth — that the free market might control inflation.
Much could change before the midterm elections, but the political winds right now favor Democrats. It feels like the winds that first came out of Kansas could burst into a nationwide gale. Even the pundits are hedging their bets, citing the possibility the Senate could remain in the Democrats’ favor.
Should a historic shift in political power come on Nov. 8, it will be driven by an unusual coalition voting with Democrats: suburban moms, Generation Z-ers (think environmental activist Greta Thunberg and anti-gun violence activists such as Parkland kids Emma Gonzalez and David Hogg), independents and disaffiliated Republicans who believe the only way to save their party is to kill it.
While reproductive rights are dominating public discourse, vocal Kansans are now hinting that undercurrent issues could further animate this highly energized coalition:
▪ The threat to democracy. As one suburban mom said, “Inflation and the stock market have their ups and downs, but losing your democracy and civil rights is forever.”
▪ Gun violence and mass shootings. Americans want universal background checks and bans on military-style weapons. As a hometown friend said, “I don’t see a reason why anyone other than military or law enforcement should possess a weapon I carried in Vietnam.”
▪ The influence of extremists in education. Suburban parents are up in arms about the far-right conservatives jeopardizing their children’s education and driving teachers from their profession.
▪ Climate change. The world is warming and average American citizens are painfully aware.
These and a plethora of other grievances held by the coalition against the Republican Party in general, and MAGA extremists in particular, could result in a historic election.
To be sure, electoral realignment is a long shot. Pragmatist pundits say both parties are likely to claim modest victories. But if American voters ride the Kansas winds and say yes to Democratic House and Senate majorities, historians and political scientists will muse over the poetic symmetry that the party of Lincoln, born in electoral realignment in 1860, died as it began.
Rick Hughey is a Leawood resident, former marketing communications business owner, coach, journalism school graduate and lifelong student of history and politics.
