Research Shows People Experiencing These Telltale Signs at 60 May Develop Dementia Within 20 Years
Dementia is a devastating condition that impacts almost 10% of older adults in the U.S. With that, it’s understandable to want to do what you can to lower the risk of developing it in the future.
Now, new research clearly spells out the risk factors for developing dementia, and even helpfully breaks them down into strong and weak predictors of the disease. Here’s what the study found, plus what brain health experts recommend for lowering your dementia risk.
Meet the experts: Clifford Segil, DO, a neurologist at Providence Saint John’s Health Center in Santa Monica, CA; Ryan Glatt, CPT, NBC-HWC, senior brain health coach and director of the FitBrain Program at Pacific Neuroscience Institute in Santa Monica, CA
What did the study find?
The study, which was conducted by economists at the nonprofit research organization RAND, analyzed data from about 20,000 people who participated in the Health and Retirement Study, a long-term, nationally representative study of Americans over the age of 50.
The researchers looked at 181 potential risk factors, and then estimated how likely they are to predict dementia and cognitive impairment for people two, four, and 20 years after they turn 60.
The economists found a bunch of different associations for predicting dementia, including a person’s baseline cognitive abilities, health, and functional limitations. But some other factors didn’t have as much of an impact.
The findings suggest that people born in the southern U.S. face a higher risk of developing dementia over time, along with people who are Black and Hispanic—although there are modifiable things that can help lower that risk.
What are the strong predictors of dementia?
According to the study findings, these are the strongest predictors that someone will develop dementia:
Having poor physical health
History of having a stroke
Not having a private health insurance plan at age 60
No work experience, or only a few years of work experience
Having diabetes or a body mass index of 35 or more at 60
Never exercising
Scoring low on physical tests, including breathing, grip strength, walking speed, and balance
Never drinking alcohol
Drinking alcohol excessively
Not having a responsible personality
Having certain genes
Not really having hobbies or doing activities that promote learning
What are weak predictors of dementia?
These are the weaker predictors of dementia, according to the findings:
Parental health
Family size
Marital history
Race and ethnicity
What do doctors think of these findings?
It’s important to stress that this research was done by economists, not doctors. But medical specialists who work with dementia patients say the findings are similar to what they see in practice.
Clifford Segil, DO, a neurologist at Providence Saint John’s Health Center in Santa Monica, CA, says he appreciates that the report breaks down risk factors that are easy to understand. He also flagged a history of stroke, poor health, and diabetes as being strongly linked to dementia, based on his practice.
However, Segil says he was surprised to see a history of only working for a few years or not having private health insurance at age 60 being a strong predictor.
Ryan Glatt, CPT, NBC-HWC, senior brain health coach and director of the FitBrain Program at Pacific Neuroscience Institute in Santa Monica, CA, also points out that the findings are observational, which makes it tough to say that certain behaviors or habits actually cause dementia. Still, he says many of the predictors from the study seem correct.
“From a practical perspective, the findings emphasize the importance of lifestyle interventions, such as regular physical exercise, maintaining social and cognitive engagement, and managing chronic health conditions like diabetes,” he says.
How to lower your dementia risk
Keeping your brain and body active is important for lowering your dementia risk, Segil says. That means doing things like having a good physical exercise routine, working, having hobbies after you retire, and trying to be in good health “are likely to prevent someone from developing dementia,” he says. Segil says this information is crucial for people to keep in mind if they want to lower the risk of dementia as they get older.
And, of course, if you're concerned about your dementia risk or have a family history of the disease, talk to a doctor. They may be able to provide personalized guidance to help lower your risk.
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